Research project AP/22 (Research action AP)
The objective of this study is to carry out a synthetic and critical analysis of approaches as regards participatory Futures Studies, and to complete this analysis by a presentation of a selection of recent initiatives (study cases).
The interest of the Belgian federal authorities to investigate the subject of long term planning in the field of sustainable development follows a growing worldwide interest for exercises of long run participatory planning. Three essential characteristics define the kind of Futures Studies aimed at by this project: 1) a Futures Study looking at many policy fields at the same time; 2) allowing to set targets in various policy domains; 3) with the aim of developing planning approaches to reach those policy objectives.
Futures Studies are described as "a reflexion on the future evolution of the systems (natural and social) which are a stake for the public debate or for the organizations' strategy", and as consisting “essentially of a way to combine into a working procedure, different tools (or methods) to develop facts and discuss ideas.” (Mermet 2003, our translation).
The project aims more specifically to develop a critical analysis of the level of the methods. The evaluation of methods and exercises of Futures Studies will be developed on the basis of an analytical grid crossing criteria of various levels, and taking into account the multiplicity of facets to which Futures Studies must answer. Within the classical parameters of “strength-weakness-opportunity-threats”, a refined grid will be developed including aspects related to the “intrinsic quality of a method” (among which are criteria linked to the quality of the methodological design and the quality of implementation), as well as relating to the “use-potential of a method” (including criteria linked to the field of sustainable development and criteria of technical feasibility and political acceptability). This last category of criteria will be enriched by the joint construction with the steering committee of precise ‘terms of references’ for the eventual prospective exercise at federal level.
The critical analysis will be carried out on two levels: a theoretical level (by analysing the methods in a generic way) and a practical level (by choosing some existing initiatives to explore their qualities and weaknesses compared to our context). The two analyses will necessarily be carried out by seeking exchange with experts (Belgian and European) of the various methods. As required in the call, the exchanges with Belgian institutional actors potentially concerned with such a Futures Study will be carried out during a seminar.
Finally, from the critical analysis and its confrontation with the conditions of applicability, as well as with the lessons collected during the exchanges with the experts and the actors, we will propose a series of pragmatic conclusions and adaptations of the methods to the Belgian federal context.
Méthodes participatives de prospective et de planification pour un développement durable: analyse d’approches et de réalisations : rapport final
Bruxelles : Politique scientifique fédérale, 2007 (SP1808)
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