Research project AS/DD/01B (Research action AS)
1. General context (international, national, etc.)
Belgium has committed itself, as a signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), to report on the assessment of the incidences of climate change and analysis of adaptive strategies in the country through national communications.
The setting (on the federal, European, and international levels) and implementation (on the federal and regional levels) of a climate change prevention and adaptation policy, based on the precautionary principle and a so-called ‘no regrets’ strategy, must be able to rely on integrated scientific bases concerning the potential effects of a climate change in Belgium.
2. Aims
The major purpose is the collection and fitting of the results of the investigation regarding the evaluation of the consequences of future climate changes on relevant systems in Belgium. Special attention will be paid to:
- the definition of the problem in Belgium;
- the analysis and selection of research method(s);
- the selection of the scenarios;
- the determination of the necessary data for the definition of the consequences;
- the drafting of a report concerning the effects of possible climate changes in Belgium for 5 domains.
3. Expected results
Reports of different kinds have been produced.
Although research efforts have increased in recent years in Belgium, this study clearly shows that the data with regard to the effects of climate change up till now are rather limited. This is not only the case for Belgium but also on European level and even worldwide. Besides, the present data available are more likely to be qualitative than quantitative. It would lead us too far to give a list of all knowledge that is missing today. Therefore, recommendations will primarily be formulated with regard to the further general needs for research taking into account the international tendencies, revealed by this study.
Based upon the present information, it can be stated as a conclusion that there are no major effects to be expected from climate change in Belgium. This is the result of the stable socio-economic situation in Belgium. However, direct effects are expected for the freshwater systems (change in river discharge and water reserves) and the coastal zone. This is only valid for the coastal zone if no adaptation measures are taken. Moreover, the industry, the construction industry in particular, public health and tourism are important issues. Apart from the effects of climate change, remarkable changes will occur in the coming years in sectors such as industry, transport and energy which will enable an autonomous adaptation with regard to climate changes.
The major effects, which are very hard to predict, will occur in case of extreme conditions. Due to an increase in the frequency of storms, floods, heavy precipitation, extreme heat, ... effects will occur which were not taken into account. It is of major importance for policy purposes to take this into consideration and to promote further research in order to elaborate contingency plans to minimize the possible effects.
It is unlikely that the efforts to control the emission of greenhouse gasses (mitigating measures) are sufficient to eliminate completely the possibility of a climate change. Thus, policy makers will also have to pay attention to possible adaptations to the effects of a climate change. Based upon the uncertainties related to the effects of climate change, one could suppose that it is better to postpone the measures for adaptation untill after the climate change. However, this is not advisable for the effects which entail great risks, which are irrevocable or even catastrophic. However attention must still be paid to the fact that anticipating measures must be flexible and economically efficient (their benefit must balance their cost).
Adaptation is seldom a response to only one environmental variable. It is more likely that the adaptation will have to take place through a combination of management measures, patterns of land use and the exploitation of new possibilities and new markets. The relation between short term adaptations of specific systems and their sustainability in the long run remains a problem. It will precisely be this sustainability which will determine in the future the possibility of a long term adaptation.
Methodology
A combination of methods have been applied. All in all, the applied methodology consists of the following elements:
An inventory and profound analysis of all experimental data of research projects relevant to the effect reporting of climate changes and this for:
- all Belgian research programmes;
- other research activities in Belgium within the framework of international programmes;
- international research programmes and programmes in countries with relevant results for Belgium (regional analogies and empirical analogies);
Research on the models and scenario’s applied and used in Belgium;
Discussion with foreign experts;
Discussion and follow-up by Belgian experts.
