Simulation model for evaluating combinations of CO2 emission reduction measures

Persons :

• M.  GOETGHEBUER Didier - Institut de Conseil et d'Etudes en Développement durable (ICEDD)
  Financed belgian partner
  Duration: 1/12/1996-1/12/2000
  
• Prof. dr.  VERBRUGGEN Aviel - Universiteit Antwerpen (UA)
  Financed belgian partner
  Duration: 1/12/1996-30/6/2001
  

Description :

Context

The Global Change programme emphasises the aspect of climate change, in which CO2 greenhouse gas plays an important role. Reducing emissions of this greenhouse gas boils down to the rational use of energy and to energy-saving. Reducing the demand for energy, by means of energy conservation or rational use of energy, is seen as one of the most important parts of a preventive energy policy aimed at sustainable development. An energy policy aimed at CO2 abatement will be more effective the closer it is able to influence the determining factors behind energy demand.

The project

The main intention of this project is to devise a simulation model that translates part of the global CO2 abatement goal for Belgium into concrete CO2 emission abatement measures for a number of target groups in their various energy activities. In an initial phase, we focus on possible measures for the residential sector. In a subsequent phase, we plan to include abatement measures for generic technologies in the commercial and industrial sector.

We describe these abatement measures using adjusted ‘conservation supply curves’. Traditional conservation supply curves are linear, describe the technical and economic potential of each separate technology and add these separate potentials together to arrive at an overall potential. We are developing a sophisticated method of analysis that takes into account the main technical and economic factors when assessing the market potential of introducing CO2 emission abatement measures. Above all, we are paying attention to the aspects that until now have barely been explained, i.e. distribution function of the costs of conserved energy, hidden costs of certain techniques and interaction between the various technologies.

In reality, energy-savings form distributions instead of set 'average' figures. As a result, the cost of conserved energy (CCE) will also form a distribution. If the energy price is below the average CCE, the traditional approach will underestimate the potential. If the energy price is above the average CCE, it will overestimate the market potential. The intention in our study is to define explicitly the presumed ‘log-standard’ distribution of a measure’s CCE in order to be able to simulate the gradual implementation of different measures. Furthermore, our intention is to include social and psychological variables. We define a cost in order to overcome implementation barriers. This cost is made contingent on the characteristics of specific consumer groups. All of this results in non-linear, marginal cost functions for energy-saving technologies. We will also try to take into account the interactions between different conservation measures, define synergies, anergies and neutral and counter-productive operations in order to produce actual market supply curves. Thus, we will be able to derive a better estimation of total abatement potential.

The supply curves of conserved energy are compared with the supply curves of produced energy. This comparison leads to a maximum CO2 emission abatement that may be obtained through implementation of an optimal mix of CO2 emission abatement technologies.

Expected results

These concepts will be incorporated within a simulation model. Using this model, policy-makers may assess different combinations of energy-saving technologies, create possible scenarios and define different strategies for the introduction of emission abatement measures.

Partners

This research is being carried out at STEM (‘Study Centre for Technology, Energy and the Environment’) together with the ‘Institut Wallon’. STEM is responsible for developing the definitive simulation model; the ‘Institut Wallon’ is investigating substitution possibilities in various sectors and the possible psychological and social factors to be used as input for the model.

Documentation :

Inventaire des techniques de substitution permettant de réduire les émissions de CO2: rapport (1)  Institut Wallon  Bruxelles: SSTC, 2000 (SP0737)
[To download]  [Exhausted] 

Simulatiemodel ter evaluatie van combinaties van CO2-emissie reductiemaatregelen    Brussel: DWTC, 2001 (SP0990)
[To download] 

Simulatiemodel ter evaluatie van combinaties van CO2-emissie reductiemaatregelen: samenvatting    Brussel: DWTC, 2001 (SP1000)
[To download] 

Simulation model for evaluating combinations of CO2 emission reduction measures: executive summary    Brussels: OSTC, 2001 (SP1001)
[To download]