Research project CG/DD1/221 (Research action CG)
Context
In view of the Kyoto Protocol signed by the European Union, climate change and related policy both at national and international level will remain a priority for policy-makers. It is essential therefore to make a correct evaluation of emission abatement possibilities in Belgium, their allocation across economic sectors and their cost.
The project
The aim of this project is to make the MARKAL model available to Belgium for the next four years in support of its policy on climate change. MARKAL is a generic model capable of representing all energy demand and supply activities and technologies for a country up to 40 years into the future. All emissions linked to energy use (CO2, CH4, N2O, NOx, SO2) are reproduced in detail. Since the model is formulated as a dynamic optimisation model, it can produce alternative developments for energy supply and demand that achieve greenhouse gas emission abatement targets at least cost. At the same time, the model conducts prospective energy and emission balance calculations, tests the potential of new energy technologies and contributes to R&D policy. Ultimately, it is a model instrument capable of approaching burden sharing between sectors in the same country in a transparent and scientific way.
At present the MARKAL model is being used in 20 or so countries that are working together to develop models within the framework of the ETSAP network. The Belgian version is being developed by CES-KULeuven and VITO within the framework of the ‘Global Change and sustainable development’ programme of OSTC and has been used intensively for policy support purposes.
In this project, resources are distributed equally between model maintenance and development and policy support. In the case of model maintenance, attention is focusing on updating the technological database, which contains several hundred existing and future energy technologies, and improving the presentation of industrial energy use. At present, two model versions are available : MARKAL and MARKAL-MICRO. In the second version, the end-use of energy is contingent on price. Both versions are continuously available for policy support.
There are two priorities in the case of model development. Firstly, there is implementation and testing for Belgium of a third model version, MARKAL-STOCHASTIC. This version is able to compute optimal hedging strategies when information on the necessity of CO2 emission abatement or affordable carbon-free technologies only become available during later periods. Secondly, attention is focused on taking more systematic account of the secondary benefits of greenhouse gas emission abatement.
The partners
VITO (Vlaams Instituut voor Technologisch Onderzoek) is responsible for extension and maintenance of the databank, while CES (Centrum voor Economische Studiën, KULeuven) focuses on model developments (MARKAL-STOCHASTIC application in the case of Belgium and incorporation of secondary benefits). Both partners will contribute to the case studies.
Expected final by-products and results
1. a complete update and extension of the MARKAL technological database
2. implementation and demonstration of MARKAL-STOCHASTIC in the case of Belgium
3. development of a MARKAL version in which secondary benefits of greenhouse gas emission abatement are explicitly taken into account in the optimisation process
4. a series of case studies that may contribute to the drawing-up of policy in Belgium with regard to climate change.
Scientific collaboration
ETSAP (Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme) is a collaboration agreement under the auspices of the International Energy Agency, whose work focuses on "Energy Options for Sustainable Development". The ETSAP network maintains the bulk of MARKAL model software (database management system and model specification) and organises two workshops per year at which experiences backed by case studies from some 20 countries are exchanged. Results from joint case studies are presented in international forums, organised by IEA among others, and are able to contribute to negotiations within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC).
How to achieve the Kyoto Target in Belgium: modelling methodology and some results
Proost, Stef - Van Regemorter, Denise Leuven: KUL, 2000 (SP1002)
[To download]
Markal, a model to support greenhouse gas reduction policies: final report
Proost, Stef Brussels: OSTC, 2001 (SP0730)
[To download]
[Exhausted]
The Belgian Markal database: annex to the report (1)
CES-Leuven - VITO Brussels: OSTC, 2001 (SP0731)
[To download]
[Exhausted]
Markal, een model ter ondersteuning van het broeikasgasbeleid: samenvatting
CES, Leuven - VITO Brussel: DWTC, 2001 (SP0738)
[To download]
Markal, a model to support greenhouse gas reduction policies: summary policies
CES, Leuven - VITO Brussels: OSTC, 2001 (SP0739)
[To download]
Optimal investment strategy under uncertainty in the Belgian energy system: annex to the report (2)
CES - KULeuven Brussels: OSTC, 1999 (SP0740)
[To download]
