Research project CG/DD1/26 (Research action CG)
Context
Tropospheric ozone is a secondary photochemical pollutant which is known to be harmful to human health, certain building materials and farm crops above certain thresholds. The presence of this oxidising gas is far from decreasing in industrialised countries at present. Steps currently being implemented to control it are corrective and only relate to the short term: reducing pollution peaks by drastically curbing traffic in urban areas. However, long-term measures are still poorly developed at present. This study will therefore address the latter aspect. The long-term preventive solutions include promoting electric and hybrid vehicles that emit very little or no ozone precursor pollutants.
Project:
This research work analyses the potential economic and environmental advantages of scenarios for using captive fleets of electric and hybrid vehicles. It therefore falls within the framework of developing tools to aid decision-making and of promoting low-pollution vehicles - topics that feature among the various measures contained in Belgium’s "Ozone Plan".
The tool recommended as a means to aid decision-making is the cost-benefit analysis. The first section deals with the functions of usage costs specific to electric and hybrid vehicles. These usage cost functions, expressed in terms of fixed and variable costs, are compared with those relative to traditional petrol and diesel vehicles.
Another step examines the costs of implementing different scenarios involving captive fleets of electric and hybrid vehicles in the Brussels-Capital Region, including the introduction of a system for renting electric and hybrid vehicles in the city. These scenarios have already been considered in another OSTC project and defined by the team under Professor Maggetto at VUB university.
In the face of these cost considerations, part two addresses the environmental benefits related to the introduction of scenarios using electric and hybrid vehicles. The methodology relies on the evaluation of the costs of damage ("external costs") related both to this new kind of drive system and to conventional vehicles. This type of approach, recommended in particular as part of the DG XII’s ExternE project, is characterised by sequence modelling : pollutant emissions - concentration of ozone in the atmosphere - physical damage - financial effects.
The results from both parts (economic and environmental) of the study are offset by a cost-benefit analysis in order to determine the "break even" conditions or the possibility of tax deductions in favour of electric and hybrid vehicles.
Expected results
The expected results cover two aspects: theoretical and practical. The theoretical aspect involves developing methodology for cost-benefit analysis in the case of urban photochemical pollution and integrating within it the latest economic and environmental knowledge. The practical aspect involves application of this method in the case of different policy scenarios for the use of captive fleets of electric and hybrid vehicles in the Brussels-Capital Region.
The theoretical aspect is conducted in two parts:
The economic part of the study deals mainly with the costs of electric vehicles and recharging infrastructures and uses the following tools and methodologies:
- Determination of cost functions advocated by new standards established at European level;
- Application of sensitivity analysis, "learning curves", etc.
The purpose of the environmental part of the study is to bring out the environmental advantages of electric vehicles. Its primary basis is provided by the following methodologies and models :
- For the evaluation of ozone concentrations in the atmosphere: the statistical "BrusselsAir" model developed by CESSE will be used, along with a model such as "Metphomod" or "EKMA";
- For the assessment of physical and monetary damage: methodology used within the "ExternE" project will be enhanced and applied to the example of Belgium.
Finally, the primary aspect of the study will aim to produce an economic and environmental summary of the different scenarios selected in order to culminate in either a net benefit or net additional cost. After comparing the two cases under consideration (with or without electric vehicles) based on an analysis of the kilometre cost and including environmental externalities, it will then be possible to present two situations :
- In the case of a net additional cost against electric and hybrid vehicles, reflection and analysis will be carried out in order to assess the"break-even" possibilities;
- In the case of significant net benefits, an internalisation analysis for these will be established with a view to justifying tax cuts in favour of the electric vehicle.
Scientific collaboration
- Team under Professor Gaston MAGGETTO, VUB;
- Olivier COUACH and Silvain PEREGO, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausane (EPFL);
- Professor J.-C. DECHAUX, Université des Sciences et Technologies, Lille.
Véhicules électriques et hybrides: une mesure pour réduire l'ozone troposphérique: rapport final
Favrel, Vincent - Landrain, Véronique - Da Silva, Nancy ... et al. Bruxelles: SSTC, 2001 (SP0735)
[To download]
[Exhausted]
Véhicules électriques et hybrides: une mesure pour réduire l'ozone troposphérique?: résumé exécutif
Bruxelles: SSTC, 2001 (SP0741)
[To download]
Electric and hybrid vehicles: a measure to reduce tropospheric ozone?: executive summary
Brussels: OSTC, 2001 (SP0742)
[To download]
