Research project CG/DD1/28 (Research action CG)
Context:
Ozone concentrations have a negative impact on public health and vegetation.
Natural and human emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and NOx are responsible for complex chemical processes that cause tropospheric ozone concentrations. Ozone policy has a twin dimension. On the one hand, specific measures are taken when ozone concentrations are high. Temporary measures are taken in order to prevent these high concentrations (cf. ozone plan). On the other hand, a sustainable policy is geared to definitively forcing ozone precursors back down.
The project
The EUROS model is a computer model for supporting policy in respect of tropospheric ozone that calculates the impact in terms of ozone concentrations in accordance with emission scenarios for volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrous oxides (NOx) .
Reducing VOC and NOx emissions comes at an associated economic cost. Benefits of ozone policy chiefly concern improved public health and better agricultural production. These benefits can be measured in monetary terms on the basis of ExternE methodology, making it possible to weigh up the costs and benefits of an ozone policy against one another.
The main objective of this proposal is therefore to offer an instrument for the evaluation of potential policy measures for a sustainable ozone policy. This instrument should allow actions to be evaluated and help policy priorities to be identified. The methodology chosen for this is the cost-benefit analysis. Cost identification will be based on well-defined and geographically specific technical actions. Benefit evaluation will use ExternE methodology, which is generally seen as the state-of-the-art technique in this particular field. Thus, a reference framework may be created, against which the costs of measures can be weighed up. This instrument will not only allow Belgium to analyse its own policy, but also enable it to better underscore its own standpoint in international positions.
In concrete terms, the project’s raison d’être is to build two models that will be coupled with the Euros model .
The major functions of the cost module are as follows:
1. To define a set policy by selecting technical measures to be taken to reduce emissions of NOx and VOC. Endogenous policy scenarios can be selected from a list of technical abatement technologies, to be used in a well-defined geographical area of Belgium and implemented within a given time framework. Exogenous policy scenarios can be used to bring in expertise from other analysis tools, and may also be used to investigate marginal changes. Typical examples of possible scenarios are: 1) BAU scenario, 2) enforcement of current legislation, 3) sensitivity analysis, 4) additional measures on top of existing regulations, etc.
2. To produce geographically detailed emission forecast for the Belgian economy for VOC and NOX emissions. Emission detail is on a grid of 7,5 km x 7,5 km.
3. Evaluating costs and profits related to this policy and identifying economic agents being involved (consumers, producers, government, and foreign countries). Uncertainties due to cost dispersion are taken into account by considering the marginal costs of abatement measures as statistical distributions.
Evaluation of the benefits is the function of the second module. This part will be based on the ExternE methodology.
Costs and benefits balancing and reporting are the main functions of the third module. Balancing costs and benefits will be based on discounting techniques as the historical periods for costs and benefits are different. Other environmental benefits (mainly global warming) are identified as well without monetary quantification.
Partners
Project partners are VITO (Flemish Institute for Technological Research), which is also promoting the project, and ECONOTEC. ECONOTEC is offering its experience within the area of emission abatement technologies, while VITO will be concentrating more on geographical aspects. The benefits assessment module will be produced entirely by VITO based on ExternE methodology.
Expected results
The final result of this project will be the full quantifying of the costs and benefits of reducing ozone concentrations.
Economische impactmodules voor het EUROS-model: eindrapport
VITO - ECONOTEC Brussel: DWTC, 2001 (SP0732)
[To download]
[Exhausted]
Economische impactmodules voor het EUROS-model: synthese
Brussel: DWTC, 2001 (SP0743)
[To download]
Economic impact modules for the EUROS model: summary
Brussels: OSTC, 2001 (SP0744)
[To download]
