Research project CP/22 (Research action CP)
Context
Despite the disappointing result of COP 6 in The Hague in November 2000 and the withdrawal of the USA from the Kyoto protocol, climate change is and remains a high priority research theme because an efficient and effective international and national climate policy is a necessary condition for sustainable development. When current greenhouse gas (GHG) emission patterns are continued, and when no measures are taken to curb these GHG emissions, projected climate change will cause considerable damages to both natural and human systems, as stressed by the new IPCC Working Group II Third Assessment Report which was approved in Geneva in February 2001. The commitments regarding GHG emission reductions will need important efforts from different sectors and actors and there is therefore a need for an instrument to evaluate the role of sectors and technologies in a verifiable and consistent manner.
Project description
Objectives
The main objective of this project is to support the Belgian climate change policy with the MARKAL model and its successor TIMES. While the primary focus of this project is on climate change policy, it can also contribute to the evaluation of other policies. This can be energy policies, e.g. investment/rational use of energy, both on the demand and the supply side, or conventional air pollution policies within the energy system. The project lies in the prolongation of a previous project with MARKAL, financed by DWTC/SSTC and builds on the experience and model development done during that project.
Methodology
MARKAL/TIMES is a technico-economic model, which assembles in a simple but economic consistent way technological information (conversion-efficiency, investment- and variable costs, emissions, etc.) for the entire energy system. It can represent all the energy demand and supply activities and technologies for a country over a horizon of 40/80 years, with their associated emissions (CO, CO2, SO2, NOx, VOC and PM) and the damages generated by these emissions. TIMES follows the same paradigm as MARKAL but the model formulation is completely revised such as to allow more transparency and greater flexibility in view of the continuous development of the model. The development of TIMES is done jointly with different partners within ETSAP.
The further development of the modelling framework concerns two aspects, the integration of the international dimension in the Belgian model and the integration of a refinery module. For the international dimension, the project will concentrate on two domains where it is most important: electricity production and GHG emission reductions. Furthermore, as the reliability of MARKAL/TIMES depends to a large extent on the quality of the database, the database maintenance remains an important activity. Database maintenance activities include the follow-up of energy demands and analysing shifts in energy demand, including new (emerging) technologies, analysing market penetration of existing technologies, gathering information on existing installations (existing capacities - residual lifetime), reviewing energy prices, follow up of industrial developments and activities.
The activities regarding policy analysis will mainly be related to the Belgian climate policy. Besides the contribution to the national communications (as has been done in the previous project with MARKAL), the project aims at contributing to more specific case studies. Possible topics are sectoral or intersectoral cost-efficiency studies, evaluation of the cost of GHG emission reduction targets to which Belgium can commit itself for the post Kyoto period, comparative analysis of the efficiency of policy instruments: taxes, permits or equipment or fuel standards. The precise specification of the case studies will have to be done in close collaboration with the policy makers during the project.
Interaction between the different partners
Two partners are involved in this project:
Centrum voor Economische Studiën, KULeuven - Prof. Stef Proost
VITO Vlaams Instituut voor Technologisch Onderzoek - Hendrik Van Rompaey
VITO is responsible for the extension and maintenance of the databank and the integration of the refinery module, while CES will concentrate on the development of the international dimension in the Belgian model. Both partners will contribute to the case studies.
Link with international programmes
ETSAP (Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme) is a collaboration agreement within the International Energy Agency which concentrates its work on "Energy Options for sustainable Development". The ETSAP-network is in charge of the maintenance of most of MARKAL model software (databasemanagement system and model specification) and organises two workshops per year where the experience with case-studies of some 20 countries are compared. Results from common case-studies are presented in international fora, organised ea. by IEA and can contribute to the negotiations within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
Expected results and/or products
There are five outputs expected:
1. an update and extension of the technological databank of Markal;
2. the conversion to the TIMES model;
3. the integration of the international dimension in MARKAL/TIMES Belgium for the electricity market and for emission permit markets;
4. integration of a refinery module;
5. a serie of case studies which can contribute to the design of the climate change policy for Belgium.
Contact Information
Promoter
Stef Proost
Katholieke Universiteit Leuven
Centrum voor Economische Studiën (KULeuven-CES)
Naamsestraat 69, B-3000 Leuven
Tel: +32 (0)16 32 68 01; Fax: +32 (0)16 32 67 96
stef.proost@econ.kuleuven.ac.be
http://www.econ.kuleuven.ac.be
Partner
Jan Duerinck
Vlaamse Instelling voor Technologisch Onderzoek (VITO)
Expertisecentrum Integrale Milieustudies
Boeretang 200, B-2400 Mol
Tel: +32 (0)14 33 59 19; Fax: +32 (0)14 32 11 58
duerinckj@vito.be
http://www.vito.be
Users Committee
- Jan De Smedt - Federale Raad voor Duurzame Ontwikkeling (FRDO) - Brussel
- Luc Peeters - Ministerie van de Vlaamse Gemeenschap - Administratie Natuurlijke Rijkdommen en Energie - Brussel
- Henry Tulkens - Université Catholique de Louvain (UCL) - CORE - Louvain-la-Neuve
Post Kyoto Options for Belgium 2012-2050 : valorisation report
Brussels : Federal Science Policy, 2007 (SP1806)
[To download]
MARKAL/TIMES, a model to support greenhouse gas reduction policies : final report
Proost, Stef - Duerinck, Jan - Van Regemorter, Denise ... et al Brussels : Belgian Science Policy, 2007 (SP1848)
[To download]
[To order]
