Research project CP/60 (Research action CP)
Context
The MOBIDIC project focuses on two specific aspects of passenger transport that are not much explored: on one hand, the role of socio-demographic factors on future mobility demand (migrations within the life cycle) and on the other hand, the spatial evolution of transport flows between sub-regions according to changes in the location of households and economic activity.
The provision of long-term forecasts of transport activity and related pollutant emissions justifies the integration of this project in the framework of the SPSD II programme. Indeed, the outcome of the project will help decision makers designing appropriate policy measures in a context of sustainable development.
Project description
Objectives
The objective of the MOBIDIC project is threefold:
1. Analyse the influence of the evolution of geographic, socio-demographic and economic factors on passenger transport flows and the modal choice in Belgium;
2. Elaborate long-term baseline projections (2020-2030) for passenger transport between the 43 Belgian administrative districts taking into account the above factors as well as the contribution of each administrative district to the production of transport flows, for each purpose and each transport mode;
3. Evaluate the emissions generated by passenger transport for the baseline projections.
Methodology
The approach adopted to elaborate the long term projections is based on the development of three inter-related sub-models.
First, the mobility generation sub-model will describe the trips generated in the administrative districts, by purpose (i.e. number, distance covered and modal choice). This sub-model actually consists of 2 modules: (i) a socio-demographic module, generating the population in the different administrative districts and (ii) the mobility profile module, allocating to each population group a specific mobility profile for each purpose.
Second, the distribution sub-model will describe the total number of commuting trips that each district attracts, as a function of characteristics such as employment and value added. Using a spatial interaction model, an origin-destination 'commuting' matrix for all 43 administrative districts will be constructed.
Finally, the environmental sub-model will calculate the emissions generated by passenger transport. Emissions will depend on the characteristics of the vehicle fleet, the average speed and the distances covered. For commuting trips, the distances will be generated by the model, for the other transport purposes the output of the mobility profile module will be used.
Interaction between the different partners
The description of this section follows the modular structure of the project: each partner is in charge of one or more specific modules.
Demography and internal migration
The development of the first module of the mobility generation sub-model is the responsibility of GéDAP. The objective of this part of the project is to produce population figures by administrative district (“arrondissement”) as an input for the other modules or sub-models.
In short, this socio-demographic model will be a traditional demographic projection tool at multiregional level involving all demographic behaviours (fertility, mortality mobility and household structure). Particular attention will be devoted to internal migration and all underlying factors.
Mobility profiles
The GRT, which managed the national survey on mobility (MOBEL), will use his expertise in this field to provide an in-depth analysis of the mobility behaviour of Belgian households. A typology of these behaviours will be elaborated, based on demographic characteristics (e.g. age, age distribution in the household, gender, car ownership, etc).
First, this typology will be used to determine the present mobility demand (number of trips, modes, distances, etc) per sub-region and per purpose. Then, it will be used in combination with demographic forecasts from the previous module, in order to assess the pattern of future mobility demand. These results will serve as input for the distribution sub-model.
Distribution of commuting trips
The Federal Planning Bureau will model commuting trips between administrative districts. In addition to socio-demographic variables described earlier, spatially disaggregated economic variables will serve as dependent variables of this distribution sub-model. The objective of this sub-model is to forecast the future trend in the distribution of commuting trips.
The project will focus on home-work trips. As to the other transport purposes (leisure, shopping, school) the destinations will not be modelled explicitly. Information on these trips provided by the mobility generation sub-model will be used directly as an input for the environmental sub-model.
Pollutant emissions
The Federal Planning Bureau is also in charge of the development of this sub-model. For each transport mode, appropriate emission factors will be used in order to evaluate the pollutant emissions generated by the passenger trips as determined in the previous sub-models.
Partners
Activities
Federal Planning Bureau
The main activities of the Federal Planning Bureau encompass macro-economic forecasts, the assessment of economic and social policies and sectoral analyses (energy, transport, innovation,…) focusing on the economic, social and environmental aspects of policies.
UCL - GéDAP
The ‘Research Centre of Demographic Management for Public Administration’ is a multidisciplinary research laboratory whose main objective is to develop fundamental as well as empirical analysis on the demographic dynamics of populations.
FUNDP - GRT
The ‘Research Group of Transportation’ of the University of Namur shares its activities between different research areas:
- modelling;
- data surveys and analysis;
- software and technologies;
- teaching and training.
Contact information
Co-ordinator
Dominique Gusbin
Bureau fédéral du Plan
47-49, avenue des Arts
B-1000 Bruxelles
Tel: +32 (0)2 507 74 36
Fax: +32 (0)2 507 73 73
dg@plan.be
http://www.plan.be
Partners
Michel Poulain
Université Catholique de Louvain (UCL)
Centre d'étude de Gestion Démographique pour les Administrations Publiques (GéDAP)
1, place Montesquieu, bte. 7
B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve
Tel: +32 (0)10 47 41 53
Fax: +32 (0)10 47 29 52
poulain@sped.ucl.ac.be
http://www.gedap.ucl.ac.be
Thierry Eggerickx
Université Catholique de Louvain (UCL)
Centre d'étude de Gestion Démographique pour les Administrations Publiques (GéDAP)
1, place Montesquieu, bte. 7
B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve
Tel: +32 (0)10 47 29 67
Fax: +32 (0)10 47 29 52
eggerickx@sped.ucl.ac.be
http://www.gedap.ucl.ac.be
Philippe Toint
Facultés Universitaires Notre-Dame de la Paix de Namur (FUNDP)
Groupe de Recherche sur les Transports (GRT)
8, rempart de la Vierge
B-5000 Namur
Tel: +32 (0)81 72 49 17
Fax: +32 (0)81 72 49 14
philippe.toint@fundp.ac.be
http://www.grt.be
Eric Cornelis
Facultés Universitaires Notre-Dame de la Paix de Namur (FUNDP)
Groupe de Recherche sur les Transports (GRT)
8, rempart de la Vierge
B-5000 Namur
Tel: +32 (0)81 72 49 22
Fax: +32 (0)81 72 49 14
eric.cornelis@math.fundp.ac.be
http://www.grt.be
Démographie, géographie et mobilité: perspectives à long terme et politiques pour un développement durable (MOBIDIC) : rapport final
Desmet, Raphael - Gusbin, Dominique - Hoornaert, Bruno ... et al Bruxelles : Politique scientifique fédérale, 2007 (SP1747)
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