Research project DB/DD/041A (Research action DB)
OBJECTIVES
The aim of the present project is to write two monographs: one concerning the "Evolution of the population: age and gender" and the other concerning "Spatial mobility of the population".
The analysis is applied to the various spatial administrative entities in existence since 1831, on the basis of the National Census and National Register. Special attention is paid to the ageing of the population and to the spatial dynamics of urban centres according to age. The analysis of spatial mobility should contribute to explaining the differential evolution of municipality populations and its future consequences.
TASKS
To write Monograph concerning the population's distribution by age and gender and its spatial mobility. This part of the research is conducted by M. POULAIN.
1. With the help of appropriate indicators, analysis of the population's distribution by age and gender will highlight the major features of the age pyramid: the masculinity ratio in relation to age categories and demographic ageing. This analysis will concern the various spatial "units": country, regions, provinces, and/or districts and municipalities.
2. The second part will be devoted to a dynamic approach to population structure according to age and gender. It will distinguish two time frames: from 1831 (or 1846) onward (long-term analysis) and the period separating the 1981 and 1991 censuses (analysis of recent trends).
2.1 Evolution of the population's age structure from 1831 to 1991
This classical analysis will concern the gradual ageing of the age structure and will place it in the context of the demographic transition. On the basis of the available data, we shall attempt to reveal the regional diversities of this evolution.
2.2 Recent evolution of the age structure from 1981 to 1991
Exactly ten years separate the two censuses. This makes possible a strict comparison of the counts of the two censuses in ten-year cohorts. The historical data of the National Register, however, make it possible to specify, at the individual level, the evolution of the population from one census to the next.
2.3 Evolution of the population from 1981 to 1991
We shall have access to all elements needed to monitor the evolution of the population figure and population structure according to age and gender between the two censuses. A descriptive analysis will propose a typology of these trends at municipality level. It will check whether the detected trends are a continuation of past ones observed since the end of the Second World War. It will attempt to distinguish natural growth from the migratory balance in explaining the evolution of the population.
3. Analysis of migrations observed from 1 March 1989 to 28 February 1993 (National Register) according to the demographic features of the migrants at the time of migration (National Register), the variables describing the move (National Register), and the socio-economic characteristics supplied by the census.
4. Longitudinal analysis of spatial mobility
The National Register makes possible an integrated analysis of migratory and matrimonial histories during the period between censuses. The record of (changing) addresses, civil statuses, and links with the head of household will shed new light on the interactions between successive migration waves on one hand, between migrations and marriage on the other. In this analysis, the analytical unit will not be the "migration" event, but the individual effecting a variable number of migrations and involved in various matrimonial situations, these events being taken as a whole and allowing a longitudinal analysis.
5. Spatial analysis of migration
This part is presented in detail in the project of coordinator W. DE LANNOY: "Verdeling volgens leeftijd en geslacht":
Analysis of age structure, of population composition according to gender for the various age groups, and of the ageing phenomenon. The analysis will be applied at various spatial levels: Kingdom, regions, provinces, districts, municipalities.
The research team of Dr. Michel Poulain (UCL) will do the quantitative data processing. The results will be interpreted and reported in the monograph by both research teams (UCL and VUB). The VUB team will conduct the spatial analysis of the phenomenon of ageing.
6. Analysis of internal migrations and of their influences on the geographic spread of the population.
Combining the data of the National Register and Census, the researchers will place the migrations effected between 1 March 1989 and 28 February 1991 (and the corresponding migrants) in a socio-economic context. The following variables concern the Census:
- the level of education
- the socio-professional category
- transit to work or school
- the type of housing at the time of the census
6.1 Spatial analysis of migrations: in this part, we shall conduct a geographical analysis of migratory flows at various spatial levels (municipalities, districts, provinces, regions). Spatial mobility patterns (immigration + emigration), immigration, emigration, and the migratory balance will be studied for the whole population and by age category and nationality. Analysis of migratory balances by age category will reveal specific migratory flows and will show which regions are becoming "younger" or "older".
6.2 Migration-linked indicators will be studied according to the type of municipality. To this end, use will be made of existing research on the limits and spatial structure of metropolitan areas and on the hierarchy of urban centres. Also included will be the relationship between inner-cities and greater urban areas on one hand, suburbs and outlying areas on the other. This should help to better understand the dynamics of metropolitan areas. By combining the census and National Register data, it will be possible to add characteristics concerning family size and the socio-economic status of migrants over the period 01.01.89 - 28.02.91.
6.3 Spatial models of migratory flows (at municipality level) will be studied in relation to income levels and realty prices. According to the observed relation, we shall also study migration according to age category.
Prof. M. POULAIN's project (distribution according to age and gender and spatial mobility of the population) and Prof. W. DE LANNOY's project (Verdeling volgens leeftijd en geslacht) constitute two aspects of the same research.
