Research project DB/DD/046 (Research action DB)
OBJECTIVES
To write and publish in two languages a monograph on nuptiality and fertility
TASKS
1. UCL: nuptiality includes four aspects: first-time marriage, divorce, widowhood, and remarriage. For each, we shall link a classical demographic approach -for table drafting and trend analysis- with statistical analysis of individual data from the two censuses -for revealing choice-of-spouse criteria and constructing socio-economic profiles of bachelors, married persons, divorcees, and widows/widowers. We shall make temporal comparisons (between censuses) and spatial comparisons (between regions) whenever possible and appropriate. It is stressed that the study on cohabitation will be conducted by the team in charge of the monograph on households.
The data sources are principally the 1991 and 1981 censuses and civil status data (for producing tables and for chronological monitoring).
2. The CBGS is in charge of the fertility study. This analysis gives a complete picture of the degree and pattern of fertility at the end of the eighties and of fertility trends in the previous decade. A clear distinction is made between the Belgian and foreign-nationality populations; Special attention is paid to the major ethnic minorities, Turkish and Moroccan.
The analysis of fertility pattern changes is based principally on cohort comparisons (longitudinal analysis). Here we use almost exclusively the data of the 1991 census. The 1981 data are used only to a limited degree in the framework of transverse comparisons. The analysis focuses on changes in fertility in general and in legitimate fertility.
A major part of the analysis, whether of the Belgian population or of the Turkish and Moroccan populations, is devoted to studying the effects of the educational level of women. Within the Belgian population, special attention is paid to the timing of the first child between the ages of 20 and 32; among the Turks and Moroccans, the emphasis is on studying in detail existing differences in the interval between marriage and the birth of the first child (duration of the marriage at the birth of the first child).
For the Belgian population, stress is laid on regional differences; for young Turkish and Moroccan women, we shall study the impact of socialisation in the host country on fertility.
Finally, the major conclusions of the descriptive analysis of the Belgian population and of the Turkish and Moroccan groups are brought together by means of a regression analysis. Hypotheses are formulated on the basis of these results concerning the future demographic evolution of the population in Belgium and recommendations are made concerning future demographic analyses and projections.
The project of Dr. R.C. SCHOENMAEKERS (Fertility) and that of Drs. F. BARTIAUX and C. WATTELAR (Nuptiality) are two aspects of the same research.
