Research project PX/8/SS/13 (Research action PX)
The first ‘Solar Drivers of Space Weather’ project (SDSW) was originally conceived as an international collaborative effort involving 9 research institutes, with the purpose ‘to investigate the basic physical processes of solar origin that determine space weather’. This project was sent as an unsolicited proposal to ESA, where it was very positively evaluated but could not be funded in its entirety due to budget constraints. Fortunately, the 4 Belgian institutes were granted funding for the project under PRODEX-6. Despite the consequently more limited scope of the project, this collaboration was very fruitful and significant progress was made.
In the continuation of the project, we propose to move to a next step of implementing the techniques developed in SDSW1 into an operational environment, while at the same time keeping as driving force the ability to answer scientific questions like: how does the dynamic structure of the interplanetary magnetic field influence CME propagation; how do the properties of the erupting feature evolve in time and how does this affect the geo-effectiveness of the CME; can reliable estimates of CME propagation speed, expansion speed and other physical properties be deduced from coronagraph images; can we use magnetograph data to improve these estimates or to improve the simulation of the CME propagation? Does the chirality of an erupting prominence affect CME propagation and geo-effectiveness? Above all perhaps, there’s the question to what extent the model of ideal MHD is valid in this context.
The move to develop such an operational environment, where our techniques would be implemented in an effort to use them for space weather forecasting (and hence, inevitably, be subject to forecast evaluation), is particularly relevant and timely in the current international context. There is a general feeling that the scientific basis of existing space weather forecast services is not yet sufficiently mature to develop credible commercial applications (this was one of the main arguments against a FP6 proposal with this aim), even though it has been claimed that the commercial impact of the October-November 2003 solar and geomagnetic storms has been largely reduced by timely alerts and warnings issued by many forecast centres. On the other hand, there is growing awareness of the relevance of Space Weather in Europe and of the need to develop a unified structure, largely thanks to the ESA Pilot Project for Space Weather Applications. Since we are currently in the declining phase of solar activity, Space Weather perturbations will be far less frequent in the coming years, making it easier to study individual cases in large detail. We must use this quiet period to prepare for a convincing demonstration of Space Weather operations based on physical models by the next solar maximum expected in 2010-2011. Such is the purpose of the current proposal. In the present proposal, we focus mainly on one class of space weather disturbances, i.e. CMEs and in particular their consequences for geomagnetic conditions. It is well-known that nearly all large geomagnetic storms are caused by CMEs. Such geomagnetic storms have also the most widespread impact on technological systems on earth: they cause the problematic geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in long conductors such as pipelines, power grids and telecommunication cables, they cause the extended auroras, they lead to perturbations of the ionosphere that affect (mainly HF) radio communication and GPS positioning, they generate satellite surface charging… In view of the potential of future valorisation of the research, it therefore makes sense to first concentrate on this aspect of space weather. This does not imply, however, that the other segments of space weather will be ignored. Where possible, we will also advance on items such as energetic particle production (known to happen at CME shock fronts) and solar flare forecasting (large flares are often associated with CME eruptions). But these other aspects are lower priority targets at the moment, even though there too a commercial interest may be developed.
Satellite(s) or flight opportunity(ies):
- SOHO
- Ulysses
- CLUSTER-II
Field of research:
Space Sciences: Solar System: solar and plasma physics
