Research project S2/064/01 (Research action S2)
OBJECTIVES
The chief aim of this research project is to establish a prospective analysis of the development and integration of information and communication technology (ICT) in our economy and the challenges this presents for our society.
During the execution of the project, a distinction will be drawn between the analysis of recent developments and the prospective analysis as well as the study of the role of the public authorities and economic policy measures.
The project will entail analysing the expected medium-term impact of the development of the information society as it affects three fundamental aspects of our society:
- economic structure, in particular new types of relationship between economic agents and agents that organise activities;
- social structure and the effects on social cohesion of the integration of new technology;
- spatial structure following new technology developments.
IMPLEMENTATION
The first part concerns aspects linked to economic structure. The prospective analysis will be carried out on the basis of reflections conducted internationally, but should also be enhanced using the viewpoints of experts and actors present in Belgium by means of case studies, meetings with experts, attendance at seminars and so on.
The study of the role played by public authorities is expected to lead on to recommendations concerning policies needed for the development of the ICT sector and its utilisation within Belgian society. Accompanying policies may also be contemplated in order to minimise any negative effects or shorten the transition period.
The following topics should be studied:
A. ICT production and dissemination in Belgium
Comparative analysis. During the course of this introductory phase, a statistical overview will be drawn up of indicators available in Belgium. In particular, we shall verify which international sources allow comparison and which areas are lacking in or have no internationally comparable figures available in Belgium.
B. ICT macroeconomic impact
This section aims to quantify ICT’s impact on the rate and characteristics of economic growth. In particular, it will involve:
- identifying the nature and scale of this technology shock from the macroeconomic viewpoint by assessing the impact on economic growth (impact on the TFP and "capital deepening") and whether it is transitory or permanent in nature. The scene will be set within the framework of a review of technology transformations and their impact on economic growth,
- examining the likely impact on employment and the NAIRU,
- assessing the impact of this technology shock as well as economic cycles on stock management in particular,
- valorising these results via publications aimed at a wide audience (and reproduced on the OSTC website), presentations to the media and the organisation of seminars. Lessons to be drawn for macroeconomic and employment policies will be presented.
C. Analysis at the sectoral and company level
In this project section, we will answer the question: what impact is ICT having within sectors and companies? This influence will be measured primarily through productivity.
As far as possible, a distinction will be drawn between the influence of capital investments in ICT and structure and other changes produced in the behaviour of companies as regards the total productivity factor and output.
In the process, the importance of e-commerce within the structure of production sectors will be analysed (with possible feedback into a socio-economic project addressing e-commerce and excessive debt):
- in order to do this, it will be necessary to produce an overall view of major developments to come in the ICT sphere,
- on the basis of case studies, we will also be verifying ICT’s acceptance within companies in terms of their production process and the adaptation thereof,
- the choice of company for this study will be based on factors that include an analysis of productivity per company branch. As far as possible, a comparison will be made for each branch with comparable studies from the EU and USA,
- lastly, a final section will verify the possible bearing of economic policy on ICT’s dissemination in companies. A distinction will be drawn here between the various policy forms (direct intervention, regulation, competition policy) available at the national and international levels,
- valorisation phase (seminars, OSTC website, publications, etc.).
D. E-government
The aim of the study is to analyse the inputs and outputs, costs and advantages for citizens, companies and authorities involved in the implementation of e-government.
Allowance will be made here for the different stages of e-gov, which actually represents far more than simply offering services via the website of a separate authority. Ultimately, it signifies the execution of service offer, contact and policy management via a multi-service structure in which -"front office" services merge into the "back office" services emanating from the various authorities and which are available 24/7.
The study is associated with the following study spheres:
- study of the six consecutive stages of e-gov: website, portal, interaction, regrouping, integration and policy. In so doing, examples of implementation from around the world will be sought,
- a brief summary of outstanding initiatives in countries belonging to the "information elite",
- inventories of the situation in Belgium at the federal, community, provincial and local district (communal) levels,
- an attempt to assess the implementation costs for the six stages,
- an assessment of the impact on infrastructure investments and employment,
- an attempt to assess the state of play regarding obstacles (guarantee of authenticity, confidentiality, integrity, private life, ingrained office cultures, funding, the digital divide, etc.),
- valorisation phase (seminars, OSTC website, publications, etc.).
E. Impact of ICT on revenues from tax and special taxes
The aim of this section is to assess the consequences of ICT penetration as regards revenues from tax and special taxes. Research will focus on problems involving the evasion of tax and special taxes linked to the development of the Internet.
Two aspects will be considered:
- impact on revenues from tax and special taxes (notably VAT) of the growth in remote commerce, the dematerialisation of certain products, relocations, assorted difficulties with identifying and locating taxable bases and the placing of certain commercial activities outside fiscal channels,
- impact on revenues from tax and special taxes of the interaction between ICT and the degree of international structuring of tax and social security contribution systems, in particular in the European framework where the dilemma of competition versus fiscal harmonisation features.
-valorisation phase (seminars, OSTC website, publications, etc.).
The final phase in this section of the study will concern the implications for economic policy.
F. Impact of ICT on social structure
Part two of the project will deal with identifying the effects of ICT dissemination on social dualisation: is the dissemination of ICT producing an increase or decrease in social dualisation, and to what extent; which economic policy channels would be likely to reinforce the factors that decrease social dualisation and lessen the dangers of it increasing?
The problem will need to be examined by taking into account various aspects of social dualisation. A distinction will need to be drawn between the national and international levels.
The study will focus on the national level, whereby it will be necessary to examine the impact of ICT by distinguishing the following dimensions of social dualisation:
- During phase one, an attempt will be made to formulate relevant questions regarding ICT and social dualisation. In particular, the study will examine the link between poverty and social exclusion as well as possible links between ICT, poverty and social exclusion.
- Dualisation in the area of private consumption. The impact of the penetration of the Internet and associated services on inequalities between consumers, both qualitative and quantitative, will be assessed and the analysis extended to other forms of ICT (GSM, PC, etc.).
- Dualisation in the area of production. The development of the ICT sector and ICT’s dissemination in other business sectors is altering the conditions under which the employment market operates, notably via changes to qualification requirements, a change in the organisation of labour and new organisation and recruitment methods. The employment market’s impact on dualisation (in terms of pay distribution, statutory inequalities, levels of qualification, access to employment) will be assessed.
- Dualisation in the area of public consumption. The development of e-government is influencing the structure of public services and access to them. The analysis will address the dangers of social dualisation in terms of access to public services.
- There will be a brief examination of the effect of ICT on international development inequalities.
- The final phase of the study will aim to identify the nature of likely global social effects, particularly on poverty and income distribution, as well as any budgetary consequences; it will also address public authority actions on this matter, notably as regards universal service.
- Valorisation (seminars, OSTC website, publications, etc.).
G. Spatial structure and the management of major cities
The aim is to gauge the economic importance of cities in the area of economic activity and employment opportunities in Belgium, and to analyse factors determining the spatial structure of economic activity. Here, ICT is viewed as a new and specific determining factor.
Provision is being made to subdivide the study into theoretical, empirical and management sections:
- New theories on economic geography (inter alia, Krugman, 1991) point to the interaction between advantages of scale and transport costs leading in the direction of the issue of a cumulative process to determine the place in which an economic activity will be located. As far as the services sector is concerned, the technology changes taking place are of particular importance.
- The situation in Belgian cities will be analysed. As far as possible, this will be contrasted with comparable experiences in other European cities. Owing to the shortage of major data sources, case studies will be need .
- The results from the study should allow methods to be developed for assessing economic management in major cities. Specific importance will be attached to finding available indicators that allow this assessment. Finally, suggestions for "good practices" will need to be made in the area of the management of major cities in terms of their economic activities.
- Valorisation phase.
