Research project VP/02 (Research action VP)
This research is within the scope of general research concerning the dynamics of international conflicts and conflict prevention. The final objective is to develop a conflictometric model. This model will enable decision-makers to make a better diagnosis (and prognosis) and to control conflicts more effectively. In the course of this century and over the past thirty years, the phenomena of war and peace have been extensively studied.
The problems are :
a the insufficiently cumulative character of research (notably due tot the minimal contact the various research institutions);
b the essentially monocausal character of the research;
c the profusion of unrealistic quantitative studies;
d neglect of scope conditions;
e politisation of a major part of the research.
The present research aims :
1 a to produce an inventory of behavioural science research as it applies to the dynamics of international conflicts;
b to compare and assess data bases;
2 to analyse and assess systematically current experience in behavioural science research, as it applies to describing conflicts and predicting their evolution :
a producing a better typology of international conflicts;
b developing a preliminary qualitative diagnostic and prognostic model, showing the principal explanatory and prognostic variables.
