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Mortality of pensioners in the public sector: actuarial and demographic analysis

Research project AG/FF/078 (Research action AG)


Persons :


Description :

1. Name of the institution

Pensions Administration of the Ministry of Finance

2. Description of the project and situation within the framework of the institution

Demographic and actuarial support of the "Exsyspen" programme of the Pensions Administration with which long-term forecasts are established concerning the evolution of the volume and the cost price of the government pensions 2002-2050.

3. Mission to be performed

a. by the research team

- analysis of mortality among pensioners of the public sector,
- in the event that significant differences are identified as a function of different parameters such as level, occupational category (civil servant, education, army, etc.), specific prospective mortality tables are drawn up,
- analysis of the assumptions used and the mathematical, statistical and actuarial methods in the simulation models,
- development of proposals on how the assumptions and methods used can be improved and/or perfected,
- development of proposals to carry out reliability tests.

b. by the public institution

1. prior to the actual research

introduction to the problematic, familiarisation with the database, provision of the necessary basic documentation, ...

2. during the course of the project

provision of the necessary informatics resources, such as equipment, data files, functional and technical support ...


4. Final product to be delivered

a. by the research team

a report including:

- an analysis and a synthesis of the research results concerning mortality among pensioners of the public sector,
- new prospective mortality tables for pensioners of the public sector as a function of selected parameters,
- an analysis and a synthesis of the assumptions and the mathematical, statistical and actuarial methods in the simulation models,
- a proposal for improving or perfecting the assumptions and the mathematical, statistical and actuarial methods in the simulation models,
- a proposal of reliability tests.

b. for the public institution

Expansion and improvement of the Exsyspen simulation models.

5. Valorisation of the final product

a. for the public institution: integration of the final product into its own functioning

With Exsyspen, the Administration already has an important high-tech simulation instrument. The recommendations of the research team will be integrated into the existing simulation models. The simulation results are intended to provide professional support to ´decision makers´, i.e.:

- The management of the Administration.
- The political policy makers (= the Minister and his staff), the future Policy Board and the future Policy Preparation Unit.

b. For the 'public': access conditions and terms for scientific users and for the general public

The Administration wishes to make its information available via different media (intranet, Internet, publications, lectures, etc.) not only to a professional group of scientific researchers (universities, professional associations, consultancy offices, etc.) but also to the general public.


Documentation :

Analyse de la mortalité des pensionnés du secteur public : rapport final    Bruxelles : Politique scientifique fédérale, 2009 (SP2103)
[To download

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