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Valorisation of microsimulation model social security

Research project AG/HH/116 (Research action AG)

Persons :

Description :

In the project AG/01/086, teams of three different universities developed a microsimulation model to simulate policy reforms on social security reforms. The model uses anonymised individual observations. With the model one can simulate the distributive impact of measures in 6 different policy domains: social security contributions, unemployment benefits, sickness and invalidity benefits, family allowances, pensions and personal income taxes.

The new and distinctive feature (for Belgium) of this model is that it uses administrative data as input for the simulations. These administrative data were provided to the researchers in different steps. Therefore it was impossible to develop all modules of the model with the same level of detail during the course of the project AG/01/086. Especially the module on the pension benefits is underdeveloped at this stage.

Objective 1 of the new project consists in updating, extending and refining the existing model with additional data. After this extension the model can be used to test the expectations with respect to the financial sustainability of the social security system. In the further development of the model, special attention will be paid to the provision of information that is policy oriented, especially this information included in the bill of July 13th 2005 ‘concerning a structural mechanism of adaptation of welfare and income levels as well as social benefits’ ( KvV Doc51 1948/001).

Objective 2 of the new project consists in situating the model in a European/international perspective. In particular an overview of other microsimulation models with respect to social protection in the European Union will be produced. It will be explained how the model can be used to judge the Belgian National Action Plan to enhance Social Inclusion (NAP/SI). The model will thus contribute to the Social Inclusion Process in the EU.

Objective 3 of the project consists in modelling behavioural reactions. Attention will be paid to the modelling of the retirement decision and the decision to withdraw from the labour market. When modelling the retirement decision, an attempt will be made to differentiate between the different options that result in withdrawal from the labour market before the official pension age is attained such as, for example, unemployment, invalidity or time credit.

Objective 4 of the project consists in describing the procedure that should be applied in case of an update of the model, when new administrative data become available.

Objective 5 of the project consists in instructing the potential users of the model in using the model.

Documentation :

Valorisation of microsimulation model social security (MIMOSIS) : final report    Brussels : Belgian Science Policy, 2007 (SP1877)
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Bibliografic references :

Child poverty à la carte? The effects of measurement period for income on poverty estimates.  CANTILLON B., VAN DAM R., VAN HOOREBEECK B., VAN DEN BOSCH K. In: Bradshaw J. [edit.] Children and social security, Aldershot, Ashgate, 2003 

The impact of the reference period on measures of household income from surveys.  CANTILLON B., VAN DAM R., VAN DEN BOSCH K., VAN HOOREBEECK B. Antwerpen - (Berichten / UFSIA, Centrum voor Sociaal Beleid ; 2003:3)., 2003 

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