Research project P4S/25/MOAT (Research action P4S)
Antarctic ice shelves are key to controlling global sea-level rise. Since 1992, global sea level has risen by around 10 cm, and future rise will increasingly depend on how the Antarctic ice sheet responds to climate change. This response is highly uncertain, largely because it depends on how heat from the ocean and atmosphere reaches Antarctica and weakens the ice shelves that surround most of its coastline.
Recent Antarctic ice loss is mainly driven by thinning of ice shelves caused by warm ocean waters flowing beneath them, combined with surface melting and fracturing linked to extreme weather and ocean conditions. However, the processes that govern ice shelf weakening and collapse are still poorly quantified, leading current climate and ice sheet models to potentially underestimate Antarctic mass loss.
The MOAT consortium (ULB, KU Leuven, and VUB) addresses this gap by directly measuring basal melting, surface melting, and ice shelf strength using advanced ground-based sensors, long-term field observations, airborne surveys, and satellite data on the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf, Antarctica. These observations are used to improve climate and ice sheet models, reducing uncertainty in projections of Antarctica’s contribution to future sea-level rise and supporting international efforts to better understand ice sheet stability in a warming world.
