Research project P4S/251/ForeBAt (Research action P4S)
Context
Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall, with growing impacts on society, infrastructure and ecosystems. As a result, citizens, policymakers and the media increasingly ask whether specific extreme events are linked to human-induced climate change. While weather services routinely provide forecasts and warnings for severe events, the connection between individual events and long-term climate change is still rarely communicated in an operational way.
In recent years, the scientific field of Extreme Event Attribution has developed rapidly to address this question. Existing approaches either assess how climate change affects the probability of certain types of events, or explore how a specific event would intensify (or not) under different climate conditions. The latter “storyline” approach translates climate risks into concrete and relatable narratives. However, important scientific questions remain regarding the robustness, uncertainty and interpretation of these approaches. ForeBAt will help to establish the scientific basis needed to support the responsible use of the storyline approach or forecast-based attribution within operational meteorological services.
Objectives
ForeBAt aims to improve the scientific understanding and operational use of forecast-based extreme event attribution. The project has three objectives. First, the project will build a database of major recent extreme weather events over Europe by combining observations, climate simulations, low-order climate models and storyline experiments. Second, the project will investigate the large-scale atmospheric and environmental conditions that shape extreme events. Third, ForeBAt will compare different event-attribution approaches and assess their consistency, strengths and uncertainties in relation to the circulation patterns. The project will examine under which conditions storyline-based attribution provides reliable and scientifically robust information, and how it complements more traditional statistical approaches.
Methodology
The project combines synoptic meteorology, weather and climate modelling and statistical analysis. The research will use both established climate attribution methods and newer conditional approaches that account for specific circulation patterns. These methods will be extensively tested using climate models and simplified models that can simulate many possible situations. This will allow us to better understand why different methods may sometimes produce different conclusions.
Impact & Dissemination
ForeBAt will contribute to a better understanding of how climate change influences extreme weather events and how this information can be communicated responsibly to society. The results will help improve climate-risk communication for policymakers, journalists and the general public by making climate-change impacts more tangible and understandable, while carefully addressing scientific uncertainties. ForeBAt will also aim to contribute to ongoing international initiatives on extreme event attribution and climate services. The project will produce practical guidelines for the future operational implementation of event attribution within the RMI.
